ERCOT – Weekly Market Update
Identify trends and movements affecting electricity in the ERCOT market to help make informed energy decisions.
The market is responding to ERCOT large-load and transmission milestones, but forward prices remain below early-summer levels. Near-term outage activity could increase volatility, while long-term demand growth remains supportive. Read our ERCOT Market Snapshot here.
Energy Only Prices
- ERCOT forwards rebounded from the 8/26 lows but remain below June 1.
- Transmission approvals and Batch Zero updates support the recent move higher.
- Batch Zero could drive significant long-term load growth, although final classifications are delayed until December.
Houston 7x24
North 7x24
Energy Only Prices ($/MWH)
North
Houston
South
West
Heat Rates
Houston HR
North HR
Heat Rates
North
Houston
South
West
Heat Rate Delta as of 10/09/2026
North
Houston
South
West
ERCOT Real Time and Zonal Congestion
- Planned transmission outages are increasing South and West Zone congestion and RTSPP volatility.
ERCOT Real Time & Zonal Congestion: Monthly Averages ($/MWH)
- 12-month min
- Red
- 12-month max
- Green
RT Settlement Point Price (Load Zone)
- 12-month min
- Red
- 12-month max
- Green
ERCOT Intrazonal Congestion
NYMEX Natural Gas
- Storage remains above the five-year average, with injections expected to increase as summer demand declines.
- Record summer gas demand and continued dry conditions remain key fundamentals.
- Outage season could bring increased price volatility.
NYMEX Natural Gas Price
NYMEX
NYMEX
$/MMBtu Delta
Additional Market Report Resources
Additional Market Report Resources
- Power prices are determined from forward Heat Rate and natural gas strips for a specific timeframe. Power Price = Heat Rate x Natural Gas Price. Power prices can change based on electricity supply and demand, which is driven by factors such as weather, the economy, available generation and grid conditions.
- Natural Gas prices are a key driver of power prices because natural gas fuels the power plants that are brought online primarily to satisfy peak demand.
- Heat Rates are the common measure of power plant efficiency and are derived from power and natural gas prices: Heat Rate = Power Price ÷ Natural Gas Price. Heat rates are typically higher when gas prices are lower. Heat rates are impacted by weather, regulatory changes, consumer demand and power plant retirements.
Disclaimers
Disclaimers
Content is provided for informational purposes as a service to our customers. While we strive to ensure that the information is accurate at the time of publication, TXU Energy assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable and buyer or customer understands it has the duty or obligation to validate such information and undertake whatever risk there may be upon its reliance. Historical and current market prices do not predict future price movements or volatility. Nothing in this communication suggests any prediction on the part of TXU Energy or its affiliates or agents.
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